By Aaron Wallace

This year, the Academy ramps up their long-standing affinity for selecting things that haven’t gotten (or won’t get) a proper, wide release. Despite that, I’ve now seen nearly every Oscar-nominated movie from 2011, including all nine vying for Best Picture. That means it’s time to share my picks and predictions.

Below, for each Oscar category, you’ll find both the movie I think will win and the movie(s) I want to win. Each time, I’ll tell you why.

After a few top-notch years for the big screen, 2011 was an off season. I’ve struggled to get excited about more than a handful of titles, and it seems voters have too. I can’t pretend this is the most riveting Oscar race, but predictions are always fun… so grab yourself a ballot and follow along!

Best Picture

My Prediction

Hugo has the most nominations and The Descendants has done well in the awards season, but despite those usual indicators, The Artist is bound to win. The Academy loves an ode to film history, and while Hugo qualifies in that regard, family films don’t fare well in the BP race. The Artist is too unique – and frankly too good – for the voters to pass up.

My Choice

It wasn’t even nominated, but I’d have gone with the inexcusably unrecognized Super 8 (another homage to filmmaking). Of the nine movies actually nominated, the beautifully epic War Horse tops my list. That one won’t win, but I’ll still be happy when The Artist takes home the big prize.

Best Actor

My Prediction

The predicting community is divided between George Clooney for The Descendants and Jean Dujardin for The Artist. I’m going with Clooney. It’s a tough call, but while I don’t think Clooney’s performance or his movie are strong enough to earn honors, I suspect voters might be reluctant to call a silent performance the best of the year (then again, they might want to be bold and do exactly that).

My Choice

2011 wasn’t a showcase for great male leads. I won’t mind a Dujardin victory, but even better is Damian Bichir‘s underrated turn in A Better Life. Aside from those two — and maybe Brad Pitt in Moneyball — I’d have ditched the Academy’s picks and chosen nominees from among the following: Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50), Daniel Radcliffe (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2), Owen Wilson (Midnight in Paris), Ewan McGregor (Beginners), and Ryan Gosling (Drive or The Ides of March).

Best Actress

My Prediction

Viola Davis is the favorite to win (for her role in The Help). I don’t understand it… Davis is a superb actress who does a fine job, but in a year that actually offered a lot in the way of lead female roles, her character didn’t demand an Oscar-caliber performance. Besides, I would characterize Emma Stone as The Help‘s leading lady, not Davis. Anyways, I’m breaking away from the pact and predicting that Meryl Streep wins. I just can’t imagine they don’t reward such a brilliant actress in such a powerful role (and after nearly three decades since her last win, she’s due one).

My Choice

Meryl Streep. While The Iron Lady isn’t quite the movie it could have been (I like it more than most), Streep near-literally disappears into Margaret Thatcher, pulling off one of the strongest character performances I’ve ever seen.

As for the other noms, I like them all, but The Artist‘s Bérénice Bejo belongs here too. I’d pull her out of Best Supporting below and substitute her for Viola Davis.

Best Supporting Actor

My Prediction

Last year, Christian Bale had a 100% lock on this category. It’s just as predictable this year. Christopher Plummer will win.

My Choice

The only actor I’d have even nominated in this pack is Jonah Hill for Moneyball. Plummer does a fine enough job in Beginners, but if anyone stands out in that movie, it’s Ewan McGregor. Clearly, the buzz has more to do with his career than his performance (admittedly, he’s due an Oscar).

More deserving would-be nominees include: Seth Rogen (50/50), José Julian (A Better Life), Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes), Ryan Gosling (Crazy, Stupid, Love.), Ben Kingsley (Hugo), and  — from Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 — Alan Rickman, Rupert Grint, Ralph Fiennes, or Tom Felton.

Best Supporting Actress

My Prediction

Octavia Spencer. She’s The Help‘s likeliest winner, with a strong enough grasp on the category to withstand even The Artist‘s buzz.

My Choice

As the liveliest and most memorable performer in The Help, I have no problem with the lovable Spencer taking home the gold. Bérénice Bejo is more deserving of acclaim, however… even if it should be in the Best Actress category instead.

As weak as it was, 2011 actually bolstered a robust slate of supporting actresses. Jessica Chastain and Melissa McCarthy seem like a stretch here, but I won’t outright deny that either is worthy. On the long list of actresses I hate to see go unrewarded are: Amy Adams (The Muppets), Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close), Anna Kendrick (50/50), Anjelica Huston (50/50), Emma Stone (Crazy, Stupid, Love.), and — again from Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2  — Emma Watson, Maggie Smith, Helena Bonham Carter, and Julie Waters.

Best Director

My Prediction

Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist. Not only is it the likely Best Picture winner (usually an indicator for the director category too), but it’s a particularly director-heavy film. Watching it, we keep thinking, “this is new, this is different, this is brave.” With very little dialogue, it’s a lot easier to assign brilliance to the director than the screenwriter. The Artist is Hazanavicius’ way of saying, “to film, with love,” and I expect the Academy to respond in like kind.

My Choice

Of the five nominated, I strongly favor Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris, one of the highest highlights of his long and accomplished career.

But as much as I love Paris, it’s a shame Steven Spielberg wasn’t nominated for War Horse (in lieu of The Descendants’ Alexander Payne). Between that and Tintin — not to mention high-profile executive producer credits on Super 8 and (well, we’ll agree to forget Cowboys & Aliens) — 2011 was Spielberg’s big return. I wish the voters could have acknowledged that with a win.

Oh, and speaking of Super 8, I’d have named J.J. Abrams in place of Tree of Life‘s Terrence Malick. While I appreciate and respect what Malick attempted to do with Life, he didn’t succeed to a great enough measure to warrant nomination.

Best Animated Feature

My Prediction

Rango. Clearly and on its face in a different league than the other domestic animated features. (In the interest of full disclosure, I wasn’t able to see the foreign-produced Chico & Rita or A Cat in Paris).

My Choice

Of the five, Rango. It’s perhaps the most unique movie nominated in any category this year — but still only my second favorite animated film of 2011. The top spot goes to Winnie the Pooh. The big headline has been that Cars 2 was shut out, but that’s no surprise. A dismal and critically thrashed follow-up to an overrated original, it had no business on anyone’s ballot, no matter how strong Pixar’s track record has been otherwise.

But while Pooh might be just a little bit slight, it’s far less so than Puss in Boots, and yet filled with so much more cleverness and heart than Dreamworks’ tired franchise extender. Last year, Tangled was inexplicably closed out of this same race, begging the question: why can’t Disney Feature Animation get any love in the category that was essentially created for them?

Best Original Screenplay

My Prediction

Midnight in Paris. This movie is amazing and despite its unseasonably early release window, it deserves awards. The voters know that and will probably make up for ignoring it in the BP and Directing races by throwing Allen the Screenplay bone here.

My Choice

Midnight in Paris. The film’s good all around, but its writing is especially strong. I would say The Artist, but it somehow seems fundamentally unfair to pass up Allen’s excellent dialogue for a film that has hardly any at all. 

Should have been nominated: Super 8, 50/50, and maybe The Muppets.

(Note: I was not able to see A Separation prior to this year’s Oscar ceremony).

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Prediction

The Descendants. It shouldn’t, but it probably will. After all, it did win the Writers’ Guild award, not to mention the Globe for Best Drama.

It’s not a lock, though. There is room for a gamble, and while I’m not rolling the dice, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Hugo or Moneyball win. Just please, God, don’t let it be Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. How that and Transformers: Dark of the Moon wound up with three nominations apiece is a mystery to me.

My Choice

Among the nominated, Moneyball. Among the un-nominated, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2, one of the best book-to-film adaptations ever.

Best Original Score

My Prediction

All signs point to The Artist.

My Choice

Either War Horse or The Artist.

Best Original Song

My Prediction

“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets. Biggest upset of the night if it doesn’t win.

My Choice

“Man or Muppet.” Easiest choice ever.

While I’m glad that The Muppets landed just the one nom (because otherwise the votes could split and give RIO a victory it doesn’t deserve), I wish it could have been “Life’s a Happy Song.” What’s really upsetting, however, is that the Academy’s stripped this once-important category down to the point that it’s possible for just two numbers to earn a nomination, neither of which get performed during the ceremony itself.

Best Cinematography

My Prediction

Tree of Life. They’ll want to award it somewhere, and being the visual wonder that it is, this is a good place to do it.

My Choice

War Horse. So beautifully shot.

Best Art Direction

My Prediction

I can see this one going any way, but Hugo seems likeliest.

My Choice

Art Direction and Cinematography are Hugo‘s two strongest suits, so I’ll welcome a win for it, but even better would be Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 (which actually is nominated). For that matter, any of the nominees are A-ok with me.

Best Visual Effects

My Prediction

Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Critics loved the movie and so did audiences. In some weird way, this can be like the Academy giving an acting award to Andy Serkis for his mostly-silent-but-still-powerful, mostly-CGI-but-still-human performance as an emotionally angsty ape.

My Choice

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2, even if for the Hogwarts battle scenes alone.

(Note: I didn’t have a chance to see Real Steel prior to this year’s Oscar ceremony. Somehow, I’m okay with that.)

Best Costume Design

My Prediction

I think it’s anyone’s game in the Costume lineup, but I’ll go with The Artist in a sweep.

My Choice

Either The Artist or Hugo works for me. A lot of this year’s movies could have been competitive in Costuming, War Horse; Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2; and The Help chief among them.

(Note: I didn’t have a chance to see Anonymous, Jane Eyre, or W.E. prior to this year’s Oscar ceremony.)

Best Makeup

My Prediction

The Iron Lady. I literally doubted whether it was Meryl Streep in the opening scenes. It’s that good.

My Choice

I’m pretty equally okay with all three, but for the sake of picking one: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2.

Best Documentary Feature

My Prediction

Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory. Hollywood’s been wrapped up in these films for a decade now, and this one has the big payoff (its subjects were freed from prison for murders they seemingly didn’t commit).

My Choice

Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory. It’s the only one of the nominated documentaries I managed to see before this year’s ceremony, but I can’t imagine any other topping it in my book. I can’t remember the last time a documentary so captured my undivided attention and stirred my passion for justice. Capable of sparking outrage and evoking tears, it’s an incredible piece of investigative and influential reporting that reminds us of what documentaries are supposed to do. It’s literally changed lives, and continues to do so as the investigation it inspired carries forward.

Best Foreign Language Film

My Prediction

A Separation. For the first time in a long time, I didn’t have a chance to see any of the Foreign Language nominees this year. This is the only one to get a nomination outside this category, and it’s in a fairly big one (Screenplay), so I’ll assume that speaks for itself.

My Choice

No pick here (see above).

Best Film Editing

My Prediction

A lot of people seem to favor Hugo for Editing, but as I wrote last year, I think voters favor a good pace for this category. That’s one thing Hugo doesn’t have. Therefore, I predict the other favorite to win: The Artist.

My Choice

From the nominees: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Outside of those, I’d pick Super 8 or The Muppets.

Best Sound Editing

My Prediction

Hugo. Close call, but it has the year’s most nominations, and since it’s not getting many (or any) of the big prizes, it’s bound to snag some of the low-hanging fruit.

My Choice

Drive. The sound helps steer the film (no pun intended), and stands out more in this movie than any other.

Best Sound Mixing

My Prediction

Hugo. For the same reason as Sound Editing.

My Choice

Anything other than Transformers: Dark of the Moon. What’s the point of good sound if it’s put to such terrible use? It doesn’t deserve to call itself an Oscar winner (“thrice-nominated” is bad enough). Moneyball seems like an odd choice for this category too, so put me down for any of the other three.

Best Documentary Short Subject

My Prediction

Taking everyone else’s word for it, I’ll go with Saving Face.

My Choice

The Documentary Shorts are far and away the hardest nominees to see in time for the Oscars… just about impossible if you’re not a part of the specialized groups supplied with screeners. I’ve managed to catch a couple in years past, but no such luck this time around.

Best Live-Action Short Film

My Prediction

The Shore. It’s the longest and most cinematic; i.e., it feels the most like a full-length movie. Paradoxically, that should get it the short film prize.

My Choice

Having seen three of the nominees (I haven’t had a chance to catch Tuba Atlantic or Raju, though I might get to both in the minutes before the ceremony), I can’t stir myself to care which wins. I guess Time Freak piqued me the most… at least, it made me laugh.

Best Animated Short Film

My Prediction

The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore. Of the four I’ve seen, it’s the most polished. The others are slight and off-putting. For some reason, La Luna isn’t picking up any buzz (yet… see below).

My Choice

Disney/Pixar’s La Luna is the only one of the nominees I haven’t seen. Though it technically qualifies for this year’s Awards, few will see it until its wide release in front of Brave in a few months. That might have hurt its chances in the race. Given Pixar’s record and the general lameness of the others, I suspect La Luna will be my favorite when I see it. Until then, I guess The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore. It’s the least boring of the four.

This year’s short film menu reflects 2011’s cinematic climate as a whole: meh.

• See Also: My picks for the 30 Best Music Singles of 2011
• Coming Soon: My list of the Top 10 Best of 2011 in Film

 

The 84th Annual Academy Awards air live this Sunday, February 26, at 7:00 p.m Eastern Time (4:00 Pacific) on ABC. Visit the official Oscar website here, part of the Go network.